NFL predictions deal with what is tangible, quantifying each team’s strengths and weaknesses in a manner that predicts a reliable outcome. But in this week’s matchup between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots, one team’s impressive tangibles come face to face with another team’s staggering intangibles, in a game between two very different, yet very good 9-2 clubs. And when the tangible meets the intangible in the world of NFL predictions, you can basically only guarantee one thing: it’s going to be a good game.
The Jets are your prototypical hard-hitting, defensive-minded power football team who like to pound opposing teams into submission behind a clock-milking running attack and low-risk quarterback play. So far, it’s working: the Jets lead the AFC East and appear on the threshold of another playoff berth behind a defense that ranks in the top 4 in points and yards allowed. But while the Jets may be tied for the best record in the league, most of their domination has been enacted against the some of the worst teams in the league. In fact, 8 of their 9 wins have come against sub .500 teams. In their 3 games against winning teams, their lone win was back in week 2 against the Patriots.
The Patriots, on the other hand, are another one of those greater-than-the-sum-of-their-parts teams that have blessed New England for the last decade, a team that seemingly gets by on smoke and mirrors instead of talent. A simple look at the numbers confirms the claim: the Patriots have the 2nd worst defense in the league, and their offensive yard totals only rank in the middle third of the league. Of course, numbers can be deceiving, as the Patriots are blessed with one of the best coaches and quarterbacks in the league, two things that allow them to maximize their talent in ways that many teams cannot.
But beyond the way Tom Brady makes everyone around him better, and beyond the way Bill Belichick gameplans in a manner that hides his team’s many weakness, the 2010 Patriots have developed a knack for making big plays at the right time, resulting in a +11 in the turnover department. Big plays can be fool’s gold because they’re hard to replicate on a week-to-week basis, but at the same time big plays tend to separate the good teams from the bad ones. So far this season, the Patriots have been good because they’ve been able to come up with timely turnovers.
Super Prediction: while the Patriots have the worst pass defense in the league, the Jets will must be careful attacking them through the air as the Patriots also have 4th most interceptions in the league, picks that lead to more possessions and more points for the Patriots league-leading scoring offense. And though the Jets have dominated at times on defense, they rank towards the bottom half of the league in terms of sacks and interceptions, meaning they’re likely to lose the turnover battle. In the end, the Patriots will make just enough plays to stay ahead, winning 24-17.